Somehow still bearish…

On my post last week i was suggesting that 2065 to 2000 should be a free fall. Well I happened to be wrong…

As we can see in the S&P500 graph below the week started good for me but then the market turned around. The market went down to 2040 and then up and down again to the 2040.

I’ve drawn a new trend line on the graph that seems to be the explanation to why the market found a support at that 2040 level. I’m not very confident about that trend line but its worth to take it into account for further trading.

So what now? Well as you can see my main oscillators RSI and TRIX are not only negative but even more clear about their selling signals. On top of that the fact is that after hitting the 2040 support the market went up, yes but only to 2065 thats already been a resistance many other times. Its also around 33%-38% retracement levels which are Dow and Fibo levels, applying Elliot wave theory we could consider that it was only a correction of the main wave that should still go further down.

As long as the market doesn’t go up 2065 i’ll still be bearish. However those 2040 could be indeed the support of a new trend line. So I’ll personally trade those very carefully and only short the market once thats broken. Which should give us at least around 35 points to trade a short. From 2030-1995 or a bit less if we want to be more safe and close at 2000.

S&P500 Index 15-03-2015